Eerie Silence about the Euro Zone Crisis (EuroFuture Briefs)
Much more than documents. Discover everything Scribd has to offer, including books and audiobooks from major publishers. Start Free Trial Cancel anytime. Download Now. For Later. Description: This policy brief discusses the effects of the European debt crisis on the transatlantic economy. Jump to Page. Search inside document. But in the long run, the lasting effects of the sovereign debt in Europe are harder to discern.
How are risks in Europe being channeled to the rest of the world, notably to the United States? This policy brief discusses both the near- term cyclical and potential long-term structural effects of the European debt crisis on the transatlantic economy. February Paper Series. The E uro F uture Project. Some activists, carrying shields made of plastic garbage cans and corrugated metal, tried to circumvent the police line, and surged toward police on another side of the building as more smoke canisters were fired.
Oakland city officials said "extremists" were fomenting the demonstrations and using the city as a playground for the movement. Protesters have accused the city of overreacting and using heavy-handed tactics. Across the country in New York, police said four people were arrested on Saturday night after protesters clashed with police at what demonstrators had called an "OccuParty" inside an abandoned building in the borough of Brooklyn. Protesters knocked over garbage pails and hurled objects at police, slightly injuring six officers, a police spokesman said.
The four people were charged with a variety of crimes including inciting a riot. Tension was rising in Washington as well, where the National Park Service said it will bar Occupy protesters in the nation's capital from camping in two parks near the White House where they have been living since October.
My forecast for the coming great economic depression has always been based on the firm foundation of Mundane Astrology and my economic analysis of the world's health. Back when my mundane economic reports were being labelled 'doom and gloom' during the financial bubble years of the s, it was a lonely place to be issuing unfavorable forecasts. I never enjoy making negative forecasts but as a forecasting astrologer my personal wishes, opinions, etc.
It was and is always about the confirmation of world transits - and what I interpreted by the astrological sciences pointed to the negative for the decade we have now entered. These 12 years - - comprise what I call the world's 'Cardinal Crisis. The astrological transits for our present era continues to point to the need to prepare for a new kind of era; rooted in the problems of past events that will require fresh, creative and strong means to resolve. For signs of the current economic crisis, and the signs for the near and medium-term, Reuters reported out of China in early November that "global shipping is in a downturn even worse than during the financial crisis, according to China's transportation minister.
That outlook for the industry made increasingly uncertain by the European debt crisis. The shipping industry is a economic bellwether because of its role in world trade saw freight rates plummet from mid to the end of that year. Participants at a global shipping industry conference in Boao, on the southern Chinese island province of Hainan, said that they do not expect the industry to revive until st the earliest, according to an informal survey by HSBC at the event.
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China is particularly important for the shipping industry as its huge appetite for raw materials has been one of the key factors supporting rates. The supply glut, made worse by economic woes in the United States and Europe, has pushed rates for dry bulk vessels that transport goods such as iron and coal below 2, on the Baltic Exchange , less than a fifth of the peak. On the flip side, rising fuel and other costs have squeezed operators' margins. China COSCO Holdings Co Ltd , operator of the world's largest bulk cargo fleet and a major global container shipper, has been able to slash charter costs after successful re-negotiations with ship owners, its chairman said.
COSCO halted payments to several ship owners earlier this year to force better terms, a move that threatened to taint its reputation within the international shipping community. Wei said that the company had stopped buying ships last year because of an uncertain industry outlook. But he forecasts a recovery in because of the China factor. The Jupiter-Saturn opposition, that opens , is a watershed event for the shipping industry and the world's economy.
As Uranus transits the vernal Aries Point, in , within orb of the fixed star Scheat , astrological indicators feature a gloomy outlook for the coming years. Europe's debt crisis has made the outlook for the global economy and shipping industry more uncertain. The World Trade Organisation cut its trade growth forecast to 5. The IMF cut its global economic growth forecast to 4 percent for both and in September from 4. Slowing growth comes at the same time as rising supply of vessels. The global dirty tanker fleet, dedicated to transporting crude and fuel oil, is expected to grow 9 percent this year and 7 percent next year, according to the ship association BIMCO.
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A disturbing sign of the coming drought in the shipping industry is also inclined by means of Uranus in Aries square Pluto in Capricorn. The combined influence of the Jupiter-Saturn opposition has greatly see share prices tumble. This compares with an expected growth in world oil demand of 1. Share prices of many shipping companies worldwide have tumbled the past year on deteriorating earnings outlooks. Won-Woo Lee, chief executive of Hanjin Shipping's container business unit, said it will be difficult to break even on all of its shipping routes in the year of - especially European routes - citing overcapacity.
We discover disturbing data in another index; which further confirms my long-standing mundane forecast on the world's economies.
Guide Eerie Silence about the Euro Zone Crisis (EuroFuture Briefs)
The gauge slid 2. Hire costs for Capesizes - the largest carriers of iron ore and coal - have plunged 84 percent from the high reached Dec.
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Capesize owners were idling vessels rather than accepting rates offered amid limited cargo bookings, and Australia was "awash with ships waiting to load," the exchange said in a report to members on February 1, Too many ships are being built as demand for raw materials slows in Asia, he said. The dry-bulk fleet of more than 8, ships is expanding more quickly than demand.
The fleet will swell by 14 percent this year, nearly five times the 3 percent gain in seaborne volumes of minerals and grains, according to Clarkson Research Services Ltd. Returns for three of the four ship types in the index are too low to cover operating costs, and they're below zero on two of 29 dry-bulk routes assessed, data from the exchange and accounting firm Moore Stephens International LLP show. Capesize and Panamax ships are earning 30 percent and 38 percent, respectively, of the amounts Oslo-based investment bank Pareto Securities ASA says they need to break even.
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Panamaxes, the largest vessels to navigate the Panama Canal, dropped 4. Supramax vessels declined 2. By Brandon Smith. Much has been said about the Baltic Dry Index BDI over the course of the last four years, especially in light of the credit crisis and the effects it has had on the frequency of global shipping. Importing and exporting has never been quite the same since , and this change is made most obvious through one of the few statistical measures left in the world that is not subject to direct manipulation by international corporate interests - the BDI.
Today, the BDI is on the verge of making headlines once again, being that it is plummeting like a wingless into the swampy mire of what I believe will soon be historical lows. What these analysts consistently seem to ignore is that regardless of their narrow opinion, the BDI has been proven to lead economic derision in the market movements of the past.
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That is to say, the BDI has been volatile exactly BECAUSE markets have been volatile and unstable, and is a far more accurate thermometer than those that most mainstream economists currently rely on. If only they would look back at the numbers further than one year ago, they might see their own folly more clearly.
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Introduced in , the Baltic Dry Index first and foremost is a measure of the global shipping rates of dry bulk goods, mostly consisting of vital raw materials used in the creation of other products. However, it is also a measure of demand for said materials in comparison to previous months and years.
This is where we get into the predictive nature of the BDI. In late , for instance, the BDI fell to its lowest level on record, then, began a slow crawl towards moderate recovery, just before the Black Monday crash of Not a chance. From to , a similar sharp collapse in the BDI preceded a progressive drop in the Dow of around points, ending in a highly suspect Fed engineered illegitimate recovery. In , the index fell to near record lows once again just before the derivatives and credit crisis hit stocks full force. To imply that the BDI is not a useful measure of future economic trends seems like an astonishingly ignorant proposition when one examines its very predictable behavior just before major financial downturns.
This is not to suggest that the BDI can be used as a way to play the stock market from day to day, or often even month to month. If an index cannot be used by day-traders to make a quick buck in a short afternoon, then why bother with it at all, right? The BDI is not an accurate measure of the daily market gamble.
It is, though, an accurate measure of where markets are headed in the long run and under extreme circumstances. They fail to mention that shipping rates never recovered from the collapse, and have hovered in a sickly manner near lows reached during the initial credit bubble burst. Yes, the useful idiots strike again…. Another subversive argument against the BDI is the suggestion that it is not the demand for raw materials that is in decline, but the number of shipping vessels out of use that is growing. A smart person might suggest that these two problems are mutually connected. An MSM pundit would not.